Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 11.828701 13.302583 14.968823 17.008879 19.462565 22.349018 26.047394
2025-03-30 9.570327 11.332058 13.479505 16.341149 20.136505 25.123224 32.398630
2025-04-06 8.169296 9.982641 12.299171 15.560262 20.181340 26.750567 37.327268
2025-04-13 7.223920 9.038089 11.439656 14.968229 20.241862 28.249230 42.308518
2025-04-20 7.163331 9.225072 12.077679 16.503929 23.599918 35.393818 58.880480
2025-04-27 6.816515 8.964582 12.034785 16.998916 25.404778 40.442956 73.844745
2025-05-04 6.252151 8.333513 11.371442 16.418231 25.284914 41.981230 82.149671
2025-05-11 6.005678 8.138863 11.334838 16.829381 26.954346 47.369356 102.313794
2025-05-18 5.651459 7.750544 10.955413 16.605865 27.397937 50.342351 118.026099
2025-05-25 5.345249 7.410344 10.618272 16.407740 27.845470 53.444193 136.343362
2025-06-01 5.100684 7.146671 10.379524 16.351583 28.562280 57.396195 160.853687
2025-06-08 4.813978 6.797020 9.969559 15.931732 28.439558 59.214585 179.134271
2025-06-15 4.604678 6.568853 9.764213 15.911406 29.274193 64.128386 217.807647
2025-06-22 4.315064 6.194023 9.281848 15.307714 28.698913 64.947225 238.589947
2025-06-29 4.033913 5.817216 8.770041 14.594621 27.756760 64.418611 252.109743
2025-07-06 3.803164 5.511489 8.363068 14.053213 27.146949 64.785664 272.688498
2025-07-13 3.880529 5.721267 8.882473 15.456071 31.619101 83.984398 482.008674
2025-07-20 3.814068 5.681894 8.945475 15.907200 33.760894 96.422599 706.330727
2025-07-27 3.624530 5.420201 8.577812 15.377916 33.097768 97.261324 791.373334
2025-08-03 3.561759 5.375450 8.614270 15.752742 35.101943 110.943009 1214.999161
2025-08-10 3.433461 5.208707 8.406652 15.549016 35.357058 116.777871 1567.718056
2025-08-17 3.316245 5.056114 8.216956 15.368347 35.655030 123.155860 2081.637876
2025-08-24 3.220897 4.938139 8.087462 15.317123 36.360469 132.378452 3044.167419